HealthDay News — Predictors of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) have been identified among patients discharged after acute myocardial infarction (MI), according to a study published online Aug. 23 in the European Heart Journal – Cardiovascular Pharmacotherapy to coincide with the European Society of Cardiology Congress 2021: The Digital Experience, held virtually from Aug. 27 to 30.

Philip Sarajlic, M.D., from the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, and colleagues examined the incidence, associated outcomes, and predictors of UGIB after acute MI. Data were included for 149,477 patients with acute MI who were discharged alive on any antithrombotic therapy and followed for UGIB for one year. Logistic regression and machine learning models were used to determine predictors of UGIB.

The researchers found that 2,230 patients had UGIB at one year (cumulative incidence, 1.5 percent), which was significantly associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 2.86; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.58 to 3.16) and stroke (hazard ratio, 1.80; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.32 to 2.45), but was not associated with recurrent MI (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.42). Hemoglobin, age, systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, smoking status, previous UGIB, and antithrombotic and gastroprotective treatment were the most important predictors of UGIB.


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“If you combine traditional statistical models with machine learning methods, you can create unique opportunities to find key risk factors for previously unknown cardiovascular events,” Sarajlic said in a statement.

Two authors disclosed financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

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